Inconceivable

Last night the Pens lost to the Devils.

This might not seem like much of a big deal.  We had plenty of practice losing to them last season (a six game series swept by that pesky team, if you don't recall).

But this season is a different story.  Since they've racked up more than twice as many losses as they have wins, who isn't beating this team?

I tried to predict what the outcome might be statistically.  

For example, Crosby and Malkin would both be out injured, and so this could hinder our production.  Our team, though, boasts of depth this year, and players like Staal, Talbot, Rupp, Letestu and Connor might rise to the occasion.

In the six games while Crosby had been out, we had only scored 15 goals.  Even so, the Devils this year have scored an average of two goals per game, and so we should come out ahead.  

As to goaltending, both Fleury and Johnson had GAA of just over 2 goals per game.  Brodeur, even though he's nearly forty years old and is still bearing the brunt of the games, hasn't had the best stats of his career because the Devils aren't the defensive team they've always been.  

I could could build on that comparison of the teams' defense, and point out the Penguins' stats on the penalty kill, or maybe bring up Kovalchuk's plus/minus stats, but this arguing with myself over who logically should win the game feels a little out of the "Battle of Wits" scene in The Princess Bride, doesn't it?  

That the Devils won is almost inconceivable.

Martin Brodeur truly played a great game.  He may have done a little playacting at one (or more) points.  But he managed to stymie the Penguins' opportunities, produce a win, and earn a shut out.

If individual players couldn't change an outcome of a game like this, what would be the point?  We'd have the hockey game decided on paper in advance, or someone would simply run the figures through a computer and come up with a calculation.  

This is why the game must be played:  you can compare what should or might or could happen until you're blue in the face, but until you let those players get out there in the test tube that is the hockey rink, you won't know what actually will happen.

Maybe we should change Vizzini's final line in that scene to, "You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders - The most famous of which is "never get involved in a World Junior championship game against Russia" - but only slightly less well-known is this: "Never go against a Brodeur when shutout is on the line."